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News > Oscars Prediction Post: Matt Dy

Oscars Prediction Post: Matt Dy



OscarFor football fans, the Super Bowl may be over but for me, mine hasn’t started yet.  This Sunday is the Academy Awards and the only playbook in sight is the one Harvey Weinstein is pushing hard for.  Will it be Silver Lining’s night or Argo’s?  This has been the most unpredictable and surprising race in years featuring a stellar line-up of nominees.  AFF is represented well here as our 2012 festival line-up included Silver Linings Playbook, Flight, The Sessions, and short film nominees Asad, Buzkashi Boys, and Head Over Heals.  I’ve included my predictions below in all 24 categories.  I’ll start off with an analysis of my two favorite categories, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay.  Click on each of the titles to download the PDF of the script (Lincoln is not available).

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo by Chris Terrio

Beasts of the Southern Wild by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi by David Magee

Lincoln by Tony Kushner

Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted winner: Argo

Chris Terrio’s tight script never lags and does a phenomenal job of keeping the audience in suspense despite already knowing the outcome.  And with tons of smart, funny one-liners, Chris Terrio could be telling the other nominees “Argof*ckyourself” on Sunday.  Tony Kushner has enough respectability in the industry to pull off a win but I think Argo will continue its winning streak here.

Best Original Screenplay

Amour by Michael Haneke

Django Unchained by Quentin Tarantino

Flight by John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty by Mark Boal


Predicted winner: Django Unchained

Quentin Tarantino has already won some key awards so far for original screenplay so I’d say he’s the favorite.  I’m sure some residual love from Inglorious Basterds and the box office success of Django can’t hurt either.  Mark Boal did win the WGA award but Tarantino wasn’t eligible for a nomination and Michael Haneke could surprise here too.

And here is the full list of my predictions:

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

Best Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio – Argo

Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Hair & Makeup: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Best Editing: Argo

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Best Original Song: Skyfall

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Live Action Short: Curfew

Best Animated Short: Paperman

Best Documentary Short: Open Heart

Check back after the show on Sunday and see how I did!

–Matt Dy, Screenplay & Teleplay Competition Director

If you think you have what it takes to correctly predict the Oscar winners, take a chance at our Oscars Prediction Contest and you could win a Producers Badge or a Film Pass to the 2013 Austin Film Festival! For more information, click here.